Greg Oden won't be dancing for a long time.
It appears that the string of injury plagued Blazer centers is continuing now that Oden has had season-ending microfracture surgery. It’s going to be really tough on the big man to be out while his teammates and fellow rookies are playing. He will have to endure the constant Sam Bowie comparisons while watching the rise of the unquestioned ROY favorite, Kevin Durant. All the while Blazer fans will be wondering what could have been had Portland drafted Durant instead of Oden. . And of course, who could forget the endless interviews with analyst Bill Walton, who knows a thing or two about injured Blazers. That’s not easy on anybody (especially the Walton interviews), but will be particularly tough on a guy as young as Oden.
However, while Blazer fans are in mourning, sports analysts are criticizing, and Bill Walton is...well, being Bill Walton, the fantasy freaks like you and me will be looking to find the silver lining. It’s no secret that the fantasy game can be brutal when it comes to injuries. Just look at last season, when the injury and suspension bug hit the league like the plague. It’s just part of the game.
Despite the injuries and other setbacks, solid fantasy players will still find a way to win. An injury to a major star can be a tough blow to take, but rarely does a door close without a window opening. Someone has to get the minutes, and with minutes usually comes production. You just have to be able to recognize who will get that opportunity, and what impact they will have.
So while fantasy owners will certainly lament the loss off Oden, we also have to consider who will benefit from it. So just who will be impacted the most by Oden’s injury? Let’s break down the benefactors:
Joel Przybilla: Now that Oden is out Joel Przybilla looks to be the primary beneficiary in playing time since he is the only other true center on the Blazers roster. Though some may not remember, Przybilla did have some fantasy value a few seasons ago. He can be a solid source of rebounds, field goal percentage, and especially blocks, where he can average over 2 a game even in somewhat limited minutes. At this point the starting spot is his to lose, so you know the minutes will be there. Joel won’t be a breakout star or anything, but he can be a decent contributor to your fantasy squad. If he is hanging around late in the draft and you need a center he wouldn’t be a bad option to take a chance on.
LaMarcus Aldridge: While Aldridge has shown a lot of promise he has also shown a tendency to get injured, which has to be in the back of the minds of fantasy players. Despite this, most consider him to be a breakout candidate, and now that Oden is down that looks to be more of a sure thing. LaMarcus will see plenty of minutes as the starting PF for the Blazers, but will get time at center as well backing up Przybilla. He should be an excellent contributor of points, blocks, rebounds, and field goal percentage. The only problem with Aldridge is that he really isn’t much of a sleeper anymore, but if he hangs around until about the 5th or 6th round he would be a great guy to take a chance on. At the end of last season he averaged 14.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks, while shooting 52 percent from the field. Now that Zach Randolph is gone and Oden is out Aldridge should be able to improve on those numbers, which is why so many fantasy vets have him #1 on their sleeper lists.
Channing Frye: After an excellent rookie campaign in 05-06, Frye fizzled last season with the Knicks. With Portland’s current lack of big men and their commitment to developing their young talent Frye should get every opportunity to prove that his rookie season was no fluke. Unfortunately, Frye really doesn’t contribute much in the blocks category, which will probably keep him from ever being a real fantasy force. If he gets his game going though he can still provide some rebounds, points, and solid percentages, which is enough to make him worth considering in the later rounds of your draft.
Brandon Roy: With Oden out Roy is unquestionably the man in Portland. He would have been the top dog anyway, but most of the spotlight would have been on Oden. Now the light will be shining squarely on Roy (when it’s not on Durant and what could have been in Portland), and it will be up to him to step up to the plate as a leader. An optimistic projection would have him putting up 20, 5 and 5 with solid percentages and a little over a three per game. Give him a good look if he is available starting in the fourth round.
Greg Oden: Yes, that’s right. Oden himself may benefit from his injury. When he returns next season no one will be expecting much from him, so the pressure will be off. Microfracture surgery usually takes two years to completely heal from, but considering Oden’s age (despite his appearance) I wouldn’t be surprised if he bounced back quicker than most. Next year he can learn the ropes at a slower pace and adapt to the NBA game. He may even be fantasy relevant by the end of the season, so keep an eye on him for 08-09.
Of course, we can’t forget that Oden’s injury saves many fantasy players from themselves. It was almost a given that he was going to be drafted too early this year, but now that’s not going to happen. All we can do right now is wish Oden a speedy recovery while we move on, we persevere, we adapt and we overcome.
-unpossibl1
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