Sunday, August 26, 2007

unpossibl1's Can't Miss Sleeper Pick

The term “sleeper” is one that gets tossed around a lot in fantasy sports…almost as often as “rehab” and “Lohan”. Not a season goes by that you don’t hear about long established stars like Jason Richardson or hyped rookies like Kevin Durant and Greg Oden mistakenly being called sleepers.

So what exactly is a sleeper then? Well, a sleeper is that player that you can get late in your draft that you think will play at a much higher level than his draft position suggests. He’s that guy that is ranked too low on other draft boards, or forgotten altogether, but you can see his true potential. For example, guys like Kevin Martin and Monta Ellis would be considered sleepers from the 06-07 season. Yes, sleepers are the guys who, when they pan out, allow you to say “I told you so!” to the rest of your league. And I have a great sleeper for the upcoming season.

Before I get into my pick as the top sleeper this season though, here is a little warning:

Once a sleeper is over publicized they aren’t truly a sleeper anymore. When fantasy experts consistently put a player on their published sleeper lists that player’s value inevitably goes up, and unfortunately so does his draft position. With that rise in draft position the sleeper is now wide awake…think Chris Kaman from last season.

So be careful with your sleepers and the hype that can surround them. Don’t assume that every sleeper will hit their best case scenario stats, no matter whose “can’t miss sleeper list” they are on (even mine, as much as it pains me to say). If you feel like you have to take a guy who you have pegged as a sleeper a little earlier than you are comfortable with then it’s usually best to just let someone else take the chance while you scoop up a known commodity instead.

Now that the disclaimer is out of the way, there is one sleeper out there who you can’t afford to pass up if he is still around anywhere past the 7th round. That player is Danny Granger.

Granger made huge strides last season, particularly with his three point shot. Plus, unlike most other sleepers, Granger is locked into his spot. You don’t have to worry about him losing minutes or playing out of position too often because of someone else stealing his thunder. He is the starting SF for the Pacers, period. And with Indiana looking to move Jermaine O’Neal (and asking the world in return for him), it’s clear that Larry Bird is willing to build the team around Danny.

A conservative projection would have him putting up 15 pts, 5.5 boards, 1.8 threes, 1 steal, 1 block, with good percentages. Those are numbers that he should be very easily able to reach (especially with Jim O'Brien's free flowing offense), which means that the risk factor on him is very low. If he puts up those stats and you get him in the 7th round you are getting good value.

The great thing is that those conservative numbers are the worst case scenario with Danny. It’s very possible that he has a true breakout season and eclipses my estimate. If that happens, he would end up with stats even better than those put up by Josh Howard (19 and 7 with 1.3 threes), who was an all star last year. Wouldn’t it be nice to get that kind of talent that late in the draft? Since Granger was solid but didn’t blow anyone away last year it’s very possible that he will be there waiting for a savvy owner to pluck him up. And being a reader of the Unpossiblog, you will be that owner and can laugh all the way to your league championship.

You can thank me when your pummeled league mates are whining halfway through the season about how they should have taken him.
-unpossibl1





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