Saturday, August 18, 2007

The First Pick


Welcome to the Unpossiblog, the all purpose Fantasy Basketball Blog. We are just a few short weeks away from the start of the Fantasy Basketball Season, and all the hoop heads (myself included) are waiting on pins and needles. It’s time to start ramping up your preparations for draft day, and the Unpossiblog will be here to help you along the way.

I will be focusing on Rotisserie scoring leagues, since I find those to be the most challenging and the most rewarding for the diligent fantasy freaks.

So here is our first scenario. It’s draft day. You have done your homework all summer. You watched carefully as major and minor players changed teams. You cringed as new injuries hit (Brand) and old ones lingered (Bosh). You have a sleeper list that’s 50 players deep, and can recite the depth chart and coaching staff of every team. This year you are going to be the one who makes the Kevin-Martin-in-the-10th-round type pick that wins your league.

Your draft room opens, and you have…the 1st pick? You have a tough decision to make right off the bat. This year, perhaps more so than any other in recent memory, there is no consensus number 1 pick. Leagues usually aren’t won in the first round, but they certainly can be lost there. Make the right selection and you will have a top talent to power your team all year long. Make the wrong pick and you could find yourself out of the running by January. So who do you take?

There are at least 5 players who could easily go number 1 overall. In no particular order, those players are: Gilbert Arenas, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, and Shawn Marion (If Dirk Nowitzki has center eligibility in your league you could make a case for him as well). If you take any of those guys no one can rightfully question your pick.

What’s that you say? Top 5 isn’t good enough? You want to know who the first pick is? Ok, here it is. Let’s break down the contenders, in reverse order of how they should be drafted:

5. LeBron James: Sorry witnesses, LeBron isn’t the King yet. James went #1 in most drafts last season, though the smart players took him and then used his inflated value to rob their league mates via trade. This year that won’t be possible. Experienced players are well aware of LeBron’s woes at the free throw line and won’t be willing to pay for him like they did last year. So LeBron has to go 5th. You can’t have the number 1 overall pick hurting you that badly from the line, especially when he doesn’t dominate in any other categories.

4. Shawn Marion: I love Marion in fantasy basketball. He is the definition of underrated and you are getting a steal if you get him anywhere outside of the top 3. However, the problem with Marion is that he is essentially the anti-LeBron. Because he doesn’t have the big name recognition of the other guys in the top 5, you will get less for Marion on the trade market than he is worth. Not that you typically would want to trade him, but there are situations where trading a top talent can give you the depth you need to win your league. You generally won’t have that option with Marion.

In addition, Marion’s value is directly tied to Steve Nash’s health. In the 6 games that Nash missed last season, Marion’s FG% plummeted to 43%. He has become accustomed to getting open looks and easy dunks with Nash, and would require a period of readjustment if the aging former MVP went down.

3. Kevin Garnett: Most people think KG’s production will take a dip now that he is playing with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. That’s not going to happen. KG had his best season when he finally got some help in Minny in the form of Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell, and you know what they say about history repeating itself. And of course, we can’t forget that the East features a wealth of scrub teams for KG and co. to feast on.

There is something that is often overlooked in fantasy basketball, and that is the competitive fire. KG has that fire perhaps more than anyone else in the league, and now he has a real chance to get to the finals. The already intense former MVP will be taking out the frustration of all those losing seasons in Minnesota on the rest of the league. The only question mark with KG is whether or not his body will continue to hold up now that he is north of 30.

2. Gilbert Arenas: MCL. Those three little letters haunted Gilbert during the playoffs last season, when he was forced to watch from the sidelines. Agent 0 had a career year last season and catapulted himself into the upper echelon on stars. The late season injury has left a bitter taste in his mouth and Gil will be looking show the league that he is 100% and ready to dominate again.

However, Gilbert’s FG% is a concern, as he shot just 42% last season and is only a 43% career shooter. With the amount of shots he takes that could spell disaster for a team that doesn’t have a plethora of high FG players around Gil (similar to AI a few years ago). I could see taking KG here instead of Gil if you have a few other low FG players high on your wish list for later rounds. Still, if it was my pick I take Arenas and then just select very carefully in later rounds.

1. Kobe Bryant: Many fantasy players will pass on Kobe as a result of the drama going on with his trade request tirade over the summer. Those players forget that Kobe thrives off of playing through adversity. During the 03-04 season Kobe’s best games came when he was flying in at the last minute from the court room in Colorado.

Like Arenas and KG, Kobe has a competitive fire, determination, and confidence to overcome all obstacles. He has lost roughly 15 pounds over the summer, which should do wonders for his explosiveness and durability. Gone are the days when Kobe was a FG anchor, as his 46% shooting last season was adequate enough. The addition of the steady hand of Derek Fisher should get Kobe the ball in prime scoring positions, which will only help his FG%. The Lakers are still Kobe’s team though, and until Andrew Bynum comes around they will only go as far as Kobe can drag them. You don’t have to worry about anyone else taking away from Kobe’s production, which should guarantee another terrific season.

The only way I could see taking someone else number 1 is if Kobe is used too much by Team USA this summer and comes into the NBA season worn down, a la Elton Brand last season. At the end of the day, Kobe was the top fantasy player by the end of last season, and I think he will be sitting on the throne again this year.

All right hoops heads, that’s it for the inaugural edition of the Unpossiblog. Keep an eye on this space for the next edition where we will continue to break down the upcoming fantasy basketball season.

-unpossibl1