Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Kevin Durant- The Real Deal?


First off, RIP Eddie Griffin. I remember it wasn't that long ago that Eddie was teasing fantasy owners with his abilities to hit the three, rebound, and block shots. It's tragic that his life was cut short.

Now, on to some business. Can you feel it? I sure can. The Fantasy Basketball season is right around the corner. I'm setting up a mock draft on the ESPN fantasy message boards and will publish the results and analysis right here.

Team USA is starting to play in the FIBA Americas Tournament, which is a great way to break up the brutally long hoops off season. Aside from seeing the health of the players though you really can't determine too much in the way of fantasy value from the tournament. International ball is just a different game. The court is smaller, the ball is smaller, the rules are different. NBA bench players like Carlos Arroyo thrive in international ball, while studs like Dwyane "My mother misspelled my name" Wade struggle. It's just a bizzaro world where you can't trust performances to translate to NBA success or failure.

However, I do think there is something has to be mentioned about the game about a month ago when the US team scrimmaged against itself. We saw top NBA talent playing against each other, and one man in particular caught my eye. Yes, Kobe hit the game winner, but I am talking about Kevin Durant here.

I typically am very wary about drafting rookies. Rookies often have a hard time adjusting to the speed of the NBA game, and as such their production can be up and down all season long. However, Durant was flat out magnificent against the NBA All Stars, showing a scoring ability and poise that I didn't expect to see for at least a few seasons. Durant finished the scrimmage with 22 points on 9 of 14 shooting, while chipping in 6 rebounds. And while the talent on the floor was of the All Star variety, the defense being played was much more intense than a typical AS game. The guys were playing for pride as well as roster spots, and KD looked right at home scoring on them.

With no one else to take the shots in Seattle I think Durant has to be strongly considered to be drafted starting in the mid 3rd to 4th round. If you are in a keeper league I could see taking a look at him in the late 2nd to early 3rd round.

I don't want to go overboard and advocate drafting a rookie too early (particularly when we have only seen one game against NBA talent), but Durant is a rare case. Not only is he NBA ready in terms of talent, but the Sonics will be his to take over from day 1. As of right now he is the early favorite to win the ROY. If you do take him though assume that his FG% will be a little low and draft around him accordingly. It will take him some time to get used to seeing NBA defenses on a consistent basis, but he should be an excellent fantasy option all season long.

I am going to start working on my annual roto ranking soon, and will go into detail here about how the process works and list the results.

Be sure to subscribe to the Unpossiblog and leave me comments here letting me know your thoughts.

-unpossibl1

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