If you are looking for a sleeper PG to pick up late in the draft your best bet is to look for Mike Conley Jr., Rajon Rondo, or Randy Foye. All three of them have the potential to outperform their draft position and will probably be fantasy mainstays for years to come. But which of these young guns will be your best bet this season? Let’s break down the factors that create a great point guard in the most efficient manner possible: Lock them in a giant steel cage and let them pound on each other while analyzing their pros and cons. That’s right, it’s going to be Foye vs. Conley vs. Rondo in a no holds barred cage match. Three men enter, one will leave. Welcome to Thunderdome.
Round 1: Playing time: Conley, on the other hand, has some serious competition. Even if the veteran Damon Stoudamire is traded, Conley still has talented second year man Kyle Lowry to contend with, as well as Pau Gasol’s best buddy Juan Carlos Navarro. So clearly Conley isn’t going to win the playing time battle, getting knocked out early and leaving Foye and Rondo to duke it out.
Rondo is the only real point guard on the Celtics roster, so minutes won’t be an issue for him. As for Foye, the Wolves got rid of both Troy Hudson and Mike James so that he could man the 1 spot full-time. Both Foye and Rondo will probably get about 40 minutes per game. So how do we determine a winner? Well, the Celtics are in win-now mode, so if Rondo falters they will find another point guard to take his minutes. KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce don’t have time to wait for a young PG to get through his growing pains. Foye and Wolves are in the exact opposite situation. The Wolves are handing the keys to Foye, and won’t think twice about continuing to start him regardless of their win/loss record. Because of that, Foye has to win this round, but just barely. All three men have taken damage, with no one having a clear advantage just yet.
Round 1 Winner: Randy Foye
Round 2- Role: A player’s role on their team can be a huge factor in their fantasy production (just ask Andrei Kirilenko). Mike Conley has a very difficult job this year, as he has to learn a new offense while keeping veterans like Mike Miller and Pau Gasol happy. Fortunately, he has plenty of scorers to pass to and should see a nice amount of assists as a result. He may not get very many shots though and will have a period of adjustment to the NBA, which will hurt his value and cause him to once again suffer a brutal early knock out when Foye and Rondo team up on him. Poor kid, but the Thunderdome isn’t for the faint of heart.
Randy Foye’s role in much more defined: be the man. He and Al Jefferson will be expected to lead the young team, and as a result he should see plenty of shots as well as opportunities to get assists. However, thanks to his role as the man Foye’s FG% will suffer since opposing teams will focus on stopping him. He will also see tough defensive assignments night after night with little in the way of help defense behind him since Mark Blount is about as intimidating as the Snapple lady. You can’t have those deficiencies in the dome.
On the other hand, Rondo should stay fresh most of the game thanks to the big 3 attracting most of the attention. In addition, Rondo won’t get very many shots playing alongside KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce, which improves his value since he is a poor shooter. The looks he does get will come from three point land after one of the big three has broken down the defense, which helps him to contribute in another category. It’s been reported that Rondo is practicing his three point shot a lot this off-season, working with perhaps the best three ball shooter in the league in Ray Allen. If Ray can have the same effect on Rondo that he had on Michael Redd we could see a nice amount of threes from him. For the most part, Rondo can focus on doing the two things he does best: play D and pass the rock. He should average between 6-7 assists and around 2 steals in addition to 1.5 threes, and while Foye will be close, Rondo’s role on the Celtics gets him the win here. A tough loss for Foye as Rondo is able to take advantage of Foye’s lack of energy and pounds out the win in round 2.
The fans around the outside of the Thunderdome are starting to chant. Rondo looks fresh and ready for round 3, Foye has a glint of defiance in his eye, and Conley has clearly seen better days.
Round 2 Winner: Rajon Rondo
Round 3: The “It” Factor: Which of these players has the drive, the will to win, that intangible “it” factor that will let them rise above the rest and walk out of the Thunderdome? Unfortunately, once again it’s just not going to be Conley. Point guard is the toughest position for a rookie to learn, and Conley has to do it on a team that has playoff aspirations. While I fully expect his talent to eventually win him the lion’s share of the minutes, he just has too much competition right now to really show off his “it” factor. In the end, Conley will have a productive rookie campaign and in time may very well be the best of these three players, but for now he can’t be the winner of this competition. The Thunderdome claims its first victim, and we are down to two combatants.
Rajon Rondo, while talented, is not a superstar. He will have a very productive fantasy season, and should benefit greatly from learning from the big 3. If he plays well this season he could win himself a starting role for years to come and wind up as a consistent top 40 pick. It’s come down to just Rondo and Foye, and it looks like the pressure may be getting to Rondo. He really needs to come up with a big fantasy night here in the final round, but does he have the ability to do it?
Foye is tired and worn down, but the way he carries himself shows that he will come up big when it counts. When Foye was originally drafted he was instantly compared to Dwyane Wade. He is quick, strong, and athletic, three things that are highly valued in today’s NBA. With the rule changes that limit hand checking on the perimeter it’s going to be very tough for teams to keep Randy from getting to the hoop. Foye also has the strength once he gets to the basket to take contact and still finish, just like Wade. Unlike Wade however, Foye has a steadily improving three point shot, which only adds to the likelihood that Foye will be a fantasy stud this year. If any of these three guys are going to break out and become a superstar this year, it’s going to be Foye. He just has “star” written all over him. Thanks to that ability to rise to the occasion, Foye pushes through his fatigue and destroys Rondo in the decisive third round. Conley and Rondo fought hard, but Foye has the heart of a champion.
Overall Winner: Randy Foye, 2-1
So there you have it. The unforgiving steel revealed the character of these three talented players, leaving us with little doubt of which one is the best. When the dust settled, it was Randy Foye who walked out of the Thunderdome and onto your fantasy roster.
Till next time…
-unposs
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